Epidemiology and Health

COVID-19: Original Article

Reconstructing a COVID-19 outbreak within a religious group using social network analysis simulation in Korea: Namje Kim, Su Jin Kang, Sangwoo Tak; Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021068. Published online September 16, 2021; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021068

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES
We reconstructed a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak to examine how a large cluster at a church setting spread before being detected and estimate the potential effectiveness of complying with mask-wearing guidelines recommended by the government.

METHODS

A mathematical model with a social network analysis (SNA) approach was used to simulate a COVID-19 outbreak. A discrete-time stochastic simulation model was used to simulate the spread of COVID-19 within the Sarang Jeil church. A counterfactual experiment using a calibrated baseline model was conducted to examine the potential benefits of complying with a mask-wearing policy.

RESULTS

Simulations estimated a mask-wearing ratio of 67% at the time of the outbreak, which yielded 953.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 937.3 to 970.4) cases and was most consistent with the confirmed data. The counterfactual experiment with 95% mask-wearing estimated an average of 45.6 (95% CI, 43.4 to 47.9) cases with a standard deviation of 20.1. The result indicated that if the church followed government mask-wearing guidelines properly, the outbreak might have been one-twentieth the size.

CONCLUSIONS

SNA is an effective tool for monitoring and controlling outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Although our results are based on simulations and are thus limited, the precautionary implications of social distancing and mask-wearing are still relevant. Since person-to-person contacts and interactions are unavoidable in social and economic life, it may be beneficial to develop precise measures and guidelines for particular organizations or places that are susceptible to cluster outbreaks.

Summary

Korean summary
본 연구는 구조화된 확률적 네트워크 시뮬레이션모형을 이용하여 국내에서 발생했던 사랑제일교회 발 코로나19 집단 감염 사례의 일별 확진자 데이터를 설명하고자, 마스크 착용 비율 추정과 반사실적 실험을 통해 방역지침을 준수한 경우 발생할 수 있었을 확진자의 규모를 추정하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과 추정된 당시 사랑제일교회의 마스크 착용 비율은 약 67% 수준이며, 만약 참석자의 95%가 마스크를 착용한 경우 확진자 규모는 실제의 20분의 1 수준에 그쳤을 것으로 예상된다. 마스크 착용은 예방접종과 함께 코로나 감염증을 극복하기 위한 가장 효과적인 예방활동이며 가장 마지막까지 강조되어야 할 것이다.

Key Message
To better understand the transmission of COVID-19 in a church setting, a stochastic social network analysis with a focus on mask-wearing practice was constructed. The results showed that if mask-wearing were to increase from 67% (at the time of the outbreak) to 95%, the outbreak could have been one-twentieth the size. Among the many measures of non-pharmaceutical intervention which may be withdrawn, mask-wearing is still one of the most effective precautionary measure and should continue to be emphasized.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature
Hyojung Lee, Sol Kim, Minyoung Jeong, Eunseo Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Jeehyun Lee
Yonsei Medical Journal.2023; 64(1): 1. CrossRef
A Social Network Analysis Approach to Evaluate the Relationship Between the Mobility Network Metrics and the COVID-19 Outbreak
Sadegh Ilbeigipour, Babak Teimourpour
Health Services Insights.2023; 16: 117863292311738. CrossRef
The effect of shortening the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling approach
Jung Eun Kim, Heejin Choi, Minji Lee, Chang Hyeong Lee
Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Investigation of Statistical Machine Learning Models for COVID-19 Epidemic Process Simulation: Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Gradient Boosting
Dmytro Chumachenko, Ievgen Meniailov, Kseniia Bazilevych, Tetyana Chumachenko, Sergey Yakovlev
Computation.2022; 10(6): 86. CrossRef

COVID-19: Original Article

Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment: Kyung-Duk Min, Sangwoo Tak; Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021040. Published online May 27, 2021; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021040

11,649 View
409 Download
9 Web of Science
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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous impact on public health and socioeconomic conditions globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in Korea.

METHODS

A mathematical model with vaccinated–susceptible–latent–infectious–recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into age groups of 0-19 years, 20-59 years, and 60 years or older. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (with 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will be prevented by vaccination.

RESULTS

The results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance, social distancing interventions for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

We expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in Korea. Health authorities should minimize delays in vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early.

Summary

Korean summary
본 연구에서 국내 백신 접종 시작이후의 코로나19 유행 추이를 수학적 모형을 통하여 예측하였다. 연구 결과, 백신 접종이 전혀 진행되지 않을 경우, 2021년 4월부터 1년간 203,135 건의 확진 사례가 보고될 것으로 예측되었으나, 하루 15만 도즈의 접종이 진행될 경우 같은 기간의 확진자 수를 64.9% 감소시킬 수 있을 것으로 나타났으며, 20세 이상을 대상으로한 사회적 거리두기 정책은 2022년 1월에 중지될 수 있을 것으로 예상되었다.

Key Message
A mathematical model with vaccinated–susceptible–latent–infectious–recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea. The results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination (150,000 doses per day and 100% compliance). Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 doses per day and 100% compliance, social distancing intervention for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review
Oscar Espinosa, Laura Mora, Cristian Sanabria, Antonio Ramos, Duván Rincón, Valeria Bejarano, Jhonathan Rodríguez, Nicolás Barrera, Carlos Álvarez-Moreno, Jorge Cortés, Carlos Saavedra, Adriana Robayo, Oscar H. Franco
Systematic Reviews.2024;[Epub] CrossRef
Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature
Hyojung Lee, Sol Kim, Minyoung Jeong, Eunseo Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Jeehyun Lee
Yonsei Medical Journal.2023; 64(1): 1. CrossRef
Neural network method and multiscale modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea
Ziqian Li, Jiwei Jia, Guidong Liao, Young Ju Lee, Siyu Liu
The European Physical Journal Plus.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia
Karan Thakkar, Julia Regazzini Spinardi, Jingyan Yang, Moe H. Kyaw, Egemen Ozbilgili, Carlos Fernando Mendoza, Helen May Lin Oh
Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 variants effects in an age-structured model
Giphil Cho, Young Jin Kim, Sang-hyup Seo, Geunsoo Jang, Hyojung Lee
Scientific Reports.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Impact of national Covid-19 vaccination Campaign, South Korea
Seonju Yi, Young June Choe, Do Sang Lim, Hye Roen Lee, Jia Kim, Yoo-Yeon Kim, Ryu Kyung Kim, Eun Jung Jang, Sangwon Lee, Eunjoo Park, Seung-Jin Kim, Young-Joon Park
Vaccine.2022; 40(26): 3670. CrossRef
Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study
Youngsuk Ko, Victoria May Mendoza, Renier Mendoza, Yubin Seo, Jacob Lee, Jonggul Lee, Donghyok Kwon, Eunok Jung
Journal of Korean Medical Science.2022;[Epub] CrossRef
The economic impact of COVID-19 interventions: A mathematical modeling approach
Jung Eun Kim, Heejin Choi, Yongin Choi, Chang Hyeong Lee
Frontiers in Public Health.2022;[Epub] CrossRef
Analysis of Superspreading Potential from Transmission Clusters of COVID-19 in South Korea
Hyojung Lee, Changyong Han, Jooyi Jung, Sunmi Lee
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2021; 18(24): 12893. CrossRef

Original Article

Estimating the medical capacity required to administer mass prophylaxis: a hypothetical outbreak of smallpox virus infection in Korea: Sangwoo Tak, Soomin Lim, Heesu Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2019;41:e2019044. Published online October 10, 2019; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2019044

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Abstract Summary PDF: Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The aim of this study was to estimate the medical surge capacity required for mass prophylaxis based on a hypothetical outbreak of smallpox.
METHODS
We performed a simulation using the Bioterrorism and Epidemic Outbreak Response Model and varied some important parameters, such as the number of core medical personnel and the number of dispensing clinics.
RESULTS
Gaps were identified in the medical surge capacity of the Korean government, especially in the number of medical personnel who could respond to the need for mass prophylaxis against smallpox.
CONCLUSIONS
The Korean government will need to train 1,000 or more medical personnel for such an event, and will need to prepare many more dispensing centers than are currently available.; Summary

Korean summary
본 연구는 이미 박멸된 감염병인 두창이 발생됨을 가상하여 대규모 백신접종의 시나리오를 바탕으로 의료인력과 접종에 필요한 보건의료시설의 가용여부를 분석하였다. 두창 발생 1년 이내에 전국민의 70%를 대상으로 백신접종을 완료하기 위해서는 최소 1,000 명 이상의 훈련된 의료인력이 필요하며, 현재 병의원 시설을 포함하여 보건소 등을 백신 접종을 위한 시설로 활용하기 위해서 체계적인 대비노력이 필요한 것으로 판단된다. 한국정부의 대비역량에 대한 좀 더 면밀한 분석이 요구된다.

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